Will Modi, the X Factor, tilt the scales, in Bengal? Or, will Mamata do a Maharashtra?

KS Muralidharan

Is the tide turning in Bengal elections? Or has the tide already turned? Out of 6 latest prominent opinion polls done in March (see table below), 3 opinion polls show the BJP wresting power from TMC, two show TMC retaining power, and one a neck to neck fight between the two, with a slight edge to the TMC, though it’s a hung assembly.

		TMC	BJP	Left INC	2016 Error
India TV- Peoples Pulse	March	95	183	16	NA
ABP Network- CNX Polls	March	141	135	16	NA
India TV- Jan Ki Baat	March	127	155	12	NA
Priyobandhu (Estimated	March	82	185	24	NA
TimesNow CVoter	March	160	112	22	-51
Shining India	March	168	89	35	NA
Average		129	143	21

Significantly, the Left-Congress-Indian Secular Front including the Furfura Sharif cleric, are nowhere in the race, as per all the opinion polls.

The BJP also is in winking distance of the half-way mark of 147 as per the average poll of polls, and the TMC is 18 seats short of the magic number.

If this holds, the TMC may fall back on support from the Congress-Left and ISF alliance for forming the government, just to keep the BJP out of power. The only possible hindrance to this is the role played by the Governor of the State who as it is, is ill-disposed to Mamata didi but it may not be enough to stop didi from literally stomping to power.

This is not implausible, as we have two recent precedents from the last two years, with the Shiv Sena ditching the BJP, and the NCP and Congress, their electoral opponents extending their support to the Shiv Sena, just to keep the BJP out of power. Similarly, the Congress in Karnataka tied up with the JD(S), its electoral opponent, and HD Kumaraswamy became the chief minister, though it was short-lived.

If anything, the desire to keep the BJP out of power in Bengal will be way much stronger like a do-or-die, since it is a large bellwether State with 42 Lok Sabha seats under it, and next only to Maharashtra in the number of MPs it represents. Also, allowing the BJP to rise and rule in Bengal could further lead to diluting the number of MPs from the “secular” rump, viz. the TMC, Congress, and the Left. In other words, the secular space will shrink further and the way forward for BJP in 2024 LS elections will become so much smoother. Further, a BJP government in Bengal could well sound the death knell of Mamata Banerjee’s political aspirations and her party, TMC may well be poached by the BJP just like it broke a section of the Congress in Karnataka, and Madhya Pradesh. At 66 years of age, Mamata Didi is not getting younger and her party MLAs and MPs will only be too acutely aware of this, and desert her sinking ship at the first opportunity.

Modi, the X Factor

A comparison of the surveys conducted for the months of February and March show that the BJP has been improving its seats tally. If this bears out, as it is expected given that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be holding a blitzkrieg of rallies in March-end and April, the BJP will fancy winning a comfortable majority and emerging as a giant killer in Bengal.

Prime Minister Modi’s electoral rallies are the X Factor that add significant bounce to the BJP’s vote share. According to one estimate, a third of the party’s votes are credited to Modi’s appeal. Even if we go by a conservative estimate, we can say that Modi’s rallies will yield an additional incremental vote share of around 5 to 6%.

Some surveys show the BJP’s vote share at a little over 38% and the TMC’s at a little over 42%. It is at this estimate the TMC will possibly win a simple majority. So if Modi’s X Factor adds up 5-6% to the BJP’s kitty, the seats tally will get reversed and the BJP will win a simple majority.

Going by the response that Prime Minister Modi is getting from the people in his rallies, there can be little doubt about the 5-6% extra votes he may get for his party.

TMC’s vote share estimate questionable

Further, the 42% vote share for the TMC appears to be overs-estimated, as it means that the party has lost only 2% of its votes from the previous assembly elections in 2016. With 10 years of anti-incumbency, and the remarkable showing by the BJP in West Bengal’s Lok Sabha elections winning 18 seats compared to 22 by the TMC, it is reasonable to expect a more substantial erosion in its vote share than just 2%.

The assumption that the TMC’s fortress is more or less intact is based on a premise that the party’s 27% Muslim vote bank is intact. However, one has to account for the Furfura Sharif and the Owaisi factor splitting the Muslim vote.

Secondly, the perception that the Muslims in Bengal have the political acumen to vote tactically is questionable, given that an overwhelming majority of them are poor and uneducated.

If the contention is that they are compelled to blindly follow the diktats of their clerics and Maulvis, then one has to also take into account a counter-polarisation of the majority community, which will not just skew the prediction, but also damage the prospects of the TMC, thus benefiting the BJP.

In fact, this scenario has been widely speculated to be counted upon by the BJP who are banking on such division of the Muslim vote and consequent polarisation of votes.

Two important takeaways

Two important takeaways from the surveys are the remarkable resurgence achieved by the BJP in Bengal which is nothing short of revolutionary, and the total wipe-out of the Left and the Congress.

For a national party which is expected to win barely 10 sears out of 92 it is contesting in a State which it once ruled and this, even after riding piggyback on  the left, and a Muslim cleric group, the Congress has been effectively reduced to a letter-head organization.

For their reigning czars, the Gandhis, it will be another resounding slap, over and above their expected defeat to the Left Front in Kerala.

The loss of face to the Left in Bengal is no less significant. Even if they win in Kerala as indicated by most opinion polls, it would only be just a singular relief from near extinction from across the country.

While there is no doubting whatsoever that the TMC has a real fight on its hands against the BJP, if the elections eventually go down to the wire in a neck and neck race, one cannot rule out that both are in with a chance.

And both the TMC and the BJP have a Plan B in place, in case of a hung assembly.

If the TMC falls short of a majority, it may reach out to the Congress-Left and Indian Secular Front who may offer them outside support or even join the Government like it happened in Maharashtra and Karnataka. And it would be in all their interests to keep the BJP from wresting power.

If the BJP falls short of a majority, it may poach a few MLAs from the Congress and the TMC, in its bid to gain a majority.

Irrespective of the final seats tally, the BJP rising like a phoenix and knocking on the doors of power in a state like Bengal is nothing short of revolutionary – and shows that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s star appeal, Rahul Gandhi’s comic appeal and the Left front’s zero appeal, in cricketing terms, is a verdict that will not be overturned by a review. (The author is consulting editor, thisweekindia.news)